Hidden Vigorish

Detailed Analysis of The Pittsburgh Pirates

Locked But Not Loaded

I have a love/hate relationship with Pirates pitcher Jeff Locke. I love to call him Mr. Nibbles, but I generally hate how he pitches. With that said I’ve always seen the value that Locke has brought to the Pirates. He is better than the 5th starter that most teams are forced to use. And it is hard to deny that the guy tends to pitch well early in the season. His first half splits over his career are marked with a stellar 3.25 ERA. It is the second half of the year when Locke historically wilts. While many fans wanted to see Mr. Nibbles jettisoned last offseason after a particularly horrendous stretch run in 2015 (5.07 ERA after August 1st), I was happy to see the Pirates keep Jeff Locke in the fold for 2016. Heading into 2016 the Pirates were an organization eagerly awaiting to the arrival of high end pitching prospects Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow. Due to financial implications, further seasoning, and workload management Taillon and Glasnow were not expected to make their way to Pittsburgh until June. Is there a better bridge to this high end talent than Jeff Locke? He is almost a perfect fit. The Pirates could run him out to the mound every 5th day for the first few months of the season when he historically pitches well. And just before he historically hits the wall he could be yanked from the rotation in favor of Taillon or Glasnow. So far Locke has delivered on his end. He is coming off perhaps the finest outing of his career…. a three hit complete game shutout of the Marlins on Memorial Day. Over his last seven starts Jeff Locke has a 3.47 ERA. Among Pirate starting pitchers only Gerrit Cole has been better. But don’t be fooled, Jeff Locke is not loaded! This is his M.O. In all likelihood the wheels are going to fall off for Locke. Just like they did last year. Just like they did in 2014. Just like they did after he earned an all-star bid with a stellar first half in 2013. In the next few weeks Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow, and perhaps Chad Kuhl will be ready to make their MLB debuts. And when they do that should be the end of Mr. Nibbles in Pittsburgh.

Help Wanted: Bullpen Arm

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in immediate need of an experienced relief pitcher capable of holding leads after the 7th inning. The candidate must possess a fastball with an average velocity of 92 mph or greater and demonstrate reasonable proficiency at throwing strikes. A 50% ground ball rate is not required but is a plus. Duties of the position include entering the game in the 6th inning or later to maintain a lead or tie game and not allowing any baseballs to leave the yard. The candidate may be asked to enter the game as early as the 4th inning on days that Mr. Nibbles Jeff Locke is the scheduled starting pitcher. For immediate consideration report to the visiting clubhouse at Coors Field in Denver Colorado and ask to meet with pitching coach Ray Searage.

Pirates Need Nicasio to be Burnirianoquez

The Pirates are set to embark on the 2016 baseball season in which it is widely believed they will once again be the bridesmaids of the NL Central. The Pirates have been strong contenders for three years running, but none of those season were quite good enough to claim the NL Central Division Crown. If the Pirates are going leap frog the Cardinals, stave off the Cubs, and avoid the Roulette Wheel that is the Wild Card Game they will have to overcome a few soft spots in the make up of this year’s squad. GM Neal Huntington has built another deep team that should be able to weather the rigors of a long baseball season. But this team still has a few flaws. The most glaring is the middle of the rotation.
If Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano can remain healthy the Pirates have a formidable one-two punch at the front of the rotation. And the Bucs have a plethora of options at the back of the rotation that are competent major league pitchers. It is frustrating watching Jeff Locke reprise his role as Mr. Nibbles, but Locke is better than what most of the teams in baseball are using as a 5th starter. Where the rotation is soft is in the middle. Huntington chose to address the rotation during the offseason by compensating for it. Instead of acquiring a strong middle of the rotation pitcher (and I do not consider Jon Niese to fit that description), Huntington chose to invest in high end middle relievers that throw hard. The plan makes a lot of sense. Limit the exposure of your soft tossing middle rotation pitchers by only expecting 5 innings from them. Then turn the ball over to guys that throw gas like Arquimedes Caminero and new acquisitions Juan Nicasio and Neftali Feliz. But a funny thing happened in Spring Training – Nicasio dominated while getting his work in as a starter early in Grapefruit League action. The Pirates wisely reconsidered Nicasio’s role. Nicasio will start the season in the rotation.
Nicasio goes from being a key piece in the new plan to use high end middle relievers to build a bridge earlier in the middle innings to now being the best hope of executing the old blueprint the Pirates used over the past several seasons to build a formidable rotation. The Buccos have gotten a lot of mileage by acquiring starting pitchers that have struggled with command but have swing and miss stuff. The coaching staff has done a tremendous job of fixing these types of pitchers and turning them into front line starters. Examples include A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, J.A. Happ… and now Juan Nicasio fits that mold. If Nicasio can become the next Burnirianoquez that soft spot in the middle of the Pirates rotation gets much firmer. That could make all thee difference in whether or not the Pirates are bridemaids once again or if they will be saying “I Do” to a NL Central Division Crown in September.

Pirates Off-season Spending and the Curious Overemphasis on the Bullpen

Last week the Pirates wrapped up one of the last formalities of the off-season by settling the contracts of all their arbitration eligible players. There are still a few more weeks left before the team commences with Spring Training. Perhaps GM Neal Huntington will make another addition to the club before then. But in all likelihood the opening day payroll of the club looks to be set just short of $100 million. 18 players on the roster will earn salaries of $2 million or more in 2016. They combine to account for $93 million of the club’s major league payroll. Filling out the 25 man roster with near minimum salaried pre-arbitration players pushes the payroll to about $97 million to start the season. That is slightly higher than the payroll at the end of last season, and represents a bump of about $9 million over the start of 2015. Given their history of making in season additions over the past 4 seasons it is safe to speculate Neal Huntington has another $5M to $10M of maneuverability left with the payroll. So a 2016 payroll budget of $105 million sounds about right. There are certainly good arguments to be made for why Pirates Owner Bob Nutting should be giving his General Manager even more financial resources. But that is not the purpose of this post. Instead of criticizing the club for how much they should be spending I am going to criticize them for what they actually are spending for.
The club took a big hit this winter from a certain segment of the fan base that likes to call the Pirates cheap. It was basically two moves that drew their ire. The first was not retaining J.A. Happ (or not signing a comparable mid-rotation pitcher to replace him). Happ signed with Toronto for a 3 year deal worth $36 million. Toronto may have slightly overpaid for Happ, but $12 million per annum for Happ is not exorbitant by any means. The second move that got the fan base rankled was dealing hometown boy and fan favorite Neil Walker to the Mets in exchange for Left handed starting pitcher Jon Niese. Both of these decisions were viewed as the Pirates choosing to cut costs over building a championship. But in reality Neal Huntington had more than enough money in the budget to retain Walker and resign Happ. The Walker for Niese swap was very nearly an even money trade. Jon Niese is set to earn $9 million this coming season. Walker is estimated to earn about $10.5 million in his final year of the arbitration. Yes, we can chalk this move up as a slight savings for the Bucs. But it is a savings that easily could have been accounted for just by the amount of money Huntington chose to commit to free agent signings. All told Neal Huntington spent $21 million on free agent signings this winter, $17 million of which applies to the 2016 payroll. That is enough to cover the slight savings that was actualized by dealing Walker, as well as the $12 million in salary that Happ will earn in 2016. So these moves that were criticized by the fan base as cost cutting measures were far more about budget allocation than the actual size of the budget.
Of course it is not fair to criticize what the club chose not to spend on without considering what they did spend on. This is where the plan of the front office this off-season really breaks down for me. Of all the signings the team made I see just one upgrade – John Jaso to replace Pedro Alvarez as the left handed hitter in the 1B platoon. Jaso lacks Alvarez’s power, but Jaso is still an overall better hitter than Alvarez. And although Jaso lacks much experience defensively at 1B he can’t possibly be as bad of a defender as Pedro who was downright awful with the glove. So I’m a big fan of the Jaso acquisition and his $4 million salary. But the rest of the free agent pickups and the more than $12 million committed to them in 2016 leaves me shaking my head. The club chose to commit $7 million combined to a pair of relievers in Juan Nicasio and Neftali Feliz. Those are odd signings for a team that never spends on middle relief and usually does a great job of finding quality middle relievers for league minimum salaries. Then another $2 million was spent on Ryan Vogelsong who is a quintessential 5th starter. Add another $2.5 million to bring back Sean Rodriguez and another $1 million guaranteed salary in Major League contracts to a pair of AAAA players that are just org depth and probably won’t even make the roster (Trey Haley and Jake Goebbert). I am confused why Neal Huntington would pay so much for all these bit parts. These are the kind of roles that should be filled by cheap talent in the system and Spring Training Invitees that prove to be bargain bin finds. And I am especially confused by the allocation of the budget on the bullpen. The team already had a significant portion of the payroll tied up with relievers Mark Melancon, Tony Watson, and Jared Hughes. Adding Nicasio and Feliz means that $22 million (nearly a quarter of the payroll) is being allocated to just 5 relief pitchers. So either Nicasio and Feliz are being pegged for bigger roles which means other changes could be imminent (like a Melancon trade) or the front office is less bullish on their ability to back fill the bullpen with cheap talent going forward. Either way this off-season doesn’t sit right with me. I feel it would have been far more prudent to keep Neil Walker and sign a mid-rotation starting pitcher instead of committing so much cash to the bullpen to cover for the inadequacies of the rotation.

Are The Pirates Punting on 2016?

It has been a little more than two months since the Pittsburgh Pirates’ season ended at the hands of Cubs in the Wild Card Game. And we are still about two months away from the start of Spring Training. That puts us at just about the half way point of the offseason. The good news is that still leaves plenty of time for GM Neal Huntington to strengthen the club to make a run at 2016. The bad news is he has so much work left to do that it feels almost inevitable that the team will take a step back next season. Even worse is that the club seems almost resigned to that fate. The actions thus far by the front office this offseason do not resemble a confident contending baseball club that senses they are on the cusp of winning a championship. Instead the team has been focusing on controlling costs almost to the point it appears they are content with punting on the 2016 season. It is one thing to trim the fat of overpaid and underperforming players such as Pedro Alvarez and Charlie Morton. Sure, those moves were to some degree salary dumps. But those decisions have potential to help the team by addition from subtraction.
More troubling are the plans to jettison solid performers just because their salaries have risen to an “uncomfortable” level. The Pirates are rumored to have been shopping closer Mark Melancon all winter. They have already dealt 2B Neil Walker to the Mets for Jon Niese. I actually like Jon Niese as a 4th starter. And Niese’s salary obligations are not that far below what Neil Walker was set to make in 2016. From that standpoint the trade wasn’t a salary dump. But wouldn’t this team be better had they kept Neil Walker AND SIGNED a competent left handed starting pitcher? They actually had one of those at the end of last season. His name was J.A. Happ and they chose to watch as he was signed away by the Toronto Blue Jays.
It hasn’t been all bad moves for the Bucs this offseason. They did make an intriguing acquisition by dealing for 1B Jason Rogers from the Brewers. Rogers has some positional versatility and he has hit at every level in the minors. He acquitted himself quite well in his first taste of big league action last season. I also like the free agent signing of pitcher Juan Nicasio. Nicasio could be a nice piece in the bullpen. He also could get another crack at being a starting pitcher. But these are really nickel and dime type moves. A strong contender like the Pirates should be moving beyond just thrift signings in the offseason. It is time the team gets a little “uncomfortable” with their payroll instead of just making the fans of the team “uncomfortable” over the thought of punting on the 2016 season.

Pirates Should Double Down on Reclamation Pitchers

For the third year in a row a starting pitcher flew the coop as a free agent after his struggling career was revived in Pittsburgh under the tutelage of pitching coach Ray Searage. Following the 2013 season A.J. Burnett cashed in with the Philadelphia Phillies. Last offseason Edinson Volquez signed a two year $20 million deal with the Kansas City Royals. J.A. Happ has become the latest Pirates’ reclamation project to get his big pay day from another team. Happ was able turn a great two month stretch into $36 million over 3 years from the Blue Jays. It is a pretty powerful indicator of the Pirates’ reputation at fixing pitchers that a guy with a 4.13 ERA and 4.20 FIP over 9 seasons can land $36 million guaranteed dollars off of the success of two months of quality pitching with the Pittsburgh Pirates after so many years of mediocrity. It is time for the Pirates to start better using their reputation as a destination for pitchers that want to revive their career.
I really wanted the Pirates to retain J.A. Happ. But if the Pirates handed out multi-year contracts worth $36 million to every pitcher that strung together a good ten start stretch for them then they would have a bunch of bad pitchers on their payroll. Jeff Locke has the same 4.20 career FIP as Happ, and Locke once pitched well enough over three months to earn an All-Star bid. How silly does it sound to offer Jeff Locke $36 million? Timing is everything and a bounce back season leading into free agency is the kind of timing that can land a pitcher a lot of money. The Pirates have a great track record of helping pitchers like that cash in.
Instead of fighting the obvious it is time to embrace the strategy fully. The Pirates should double down on reclamation projects. I’m not saying the Pirates should get more of them. I think one free agent project signing at a time is perfect. But the Pirates should tweak their strategy by aiming either for higher quality pitchers or exert pressure to lock these kind of reclamation project pitchers into a second year with the club. Both strategies would take a little more money. Here are two examples:
Example 1: Pirates attempt to convince Jeff Samardzija that a year in Pittsburgh could get him an even bigger payday next offseason. Two years ago it looked as if Samardzija was headed for a monster free agent deal. But a poorly timed rough season with the White Sox during his walk year killed a lot of his value. Samardzija is still going to get a nice payday…just not the $150 million multi-year deal he would have gotten had he continued to pitch well in 2015. But if Samardzija were to have a great bounce back season with a team on a 1 year deal he could still get that monster contract. There is no better place to attempt that than Pittsburgh. Samardzija has a much higher ceiling than the typical reclamation signing, but of course this would cost more money than the Pirates typically pay for a reclamation pitcher. No matter how appealing the scenario Jeff Samardzija isn’t signing anywhere for $8 million. But would $20 million for one season and another shot at a huge payday next offseason pique his interest? The Pirates need to find out.
Example 2: Secure a second year club option with your reclamation projects. For the sake of argument let’s say the Pirates sign Trevor Cahill who they have been rumored to have interest in. Cahill fits the mold of a reclamation project bounce back candidate. Instead of signing him for a single year and then watching him walk via free agency after as solid season pitching at PNC Park, the Pirates should double down by demanding the deal include a second year club option. The appeal to these kind of deals to a pitcher like Cahill is the opportunity to get to free agency again with rebuilt value. So if he is going to consider losing an additional year of control he will need to be compensated well for it. The club option year would have to be significant money, probably in the vicinity of $12 million with a healthy $3 million buyout if not exercised. No matter how Cahill were to pitch the Pirates would end up paying him significantly more than what it would take to control him for just one season. But if Cahill pitches as well as the other recent reclamation signings that the Bucs have made then that second year could be great value.
Either of these strategies would be a gamble for the Pirates. But if the Pirates believe in their success with fixing pitchers then these are gambles worth taking. So my advice to GM Neal Huntington is simple….Double Down on your next reclamation project starting pitcher free agent signing.

Why Does Charlie Morton Get So Much Love?

The Pirates parted ways with Vance Worley this week after he was outrighted off the 40 man roster and claimed by the Orioles. That closes the book on the Vanimal’s two years stint with the Bucs. During that time Worley posted a 12-10 record with a 3.31 ERA and a 3.59 FIP. The way the Pirates handled Worley this past season still perplexes me. His production was never valued by the club. He was relegated to AAA at midseason while Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke continued to pitch like garbage for much of the second half of the season. That Worley was so easily discarded is not so hard to understand. From a pure stuff standpoint Worley has limitations. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats and he doesn’t roll a lot of ground balls. The Pirates aren’t the first team to throw Worley on the discard pile. The Phillies and Twins didn’t hold him in high regard either. The question that is begged to be asked following Worley’s exit from the organization is not about Vance Worley at all. The real question is why does Charlie Morton get so much love?

The Pirates coaching staff have always raved about Charlie Morton’s stuff. He does have great movement on his sinker. He does produce elite ground ball rates. The affinity for Morton can be seen in the nicknames Morton has been tabbed with over the years. Electric Stuff. Ground Chuck. These are great labels for a pitcher. Unfortunately, Morton is no where near a great pitcher. Morton’s production doesn’t come close to matching his hype. He has a career 4.54 ERA and 4.12 FIP. His career best FIP was in 2013 when he posted a 3.60 FIP in 116 innings. Morton pitches like a back of the rotation starter, and that is only when he is healthy enough to pitch. He has spent time on disabled list in each of the last four seasons and has never pitched more than 172 innings in a season.

Vance Worley was discarded after pitching to a 3.59 FIP over parts of two season with the Pirates. Charlie Morton was given a 3 year contract extension worth $21 million guaranteed dollars after posting a career best 3.60 FIP in 2013. And that my friends is a curiously un-Pirate like thing to do. The Pirates staff and front office are too enamored with Morton’s stuff and that has clouded their judgment on his value and role with the team. It is time the Pirates start treating Morton as his production warrants. He is producing like a back end starting pitcher and back end starting pitching is something that a contender like the Pirates should look at as a potential spot to upgrade.

Raise The Jolly Roger in Walk-Off Style – Videos of Every Pirates Walk-Off Win

The Pittsburgh Pirates 2015 season came to a disappointing end at the hands of Chicago Cubs in the NL Wild Card Game, but that doesn’t mean this season should be forgotten. The Jolly Roger was Raised an astonishing 98 times this season. 53 of those wins sent the hometown crowd home happy. There was a lot of exciting baseball played on the North Shore this summer, and as always the walk-offs were the most exciting games that will live on in our memories the longest. The Pirates gave us 11 such victories this season. Here are all 11 of them. Enjoy!

1) June 12, 2015 – Starling Marte grounds a single through the middle to knock in Chris Stewart as the Pirates beat the Phillies 1-0 in 13 innings.


2) June 14, 2015 – Same teams, same score, same exact type of hit. This time it was Josh Harrison playing the hero in the 11th inning.


3) June 26, 2015 – Jordy Mercer treated an old friend very unkindly when he doubled home the winning run in the bottom of the 10th inning to give the Pirates a 3-2 win over the Braves. The losing pitcher was former Pirates’ closer Jason Grilli


4) July 6, 2015 – Pedro Alvarez knocks in the winning run with a single to RF to beat the Padres 2-1 in the bottom the 9th inning


5) July 11, 2015 – This was the most memorable moment of the season. The Pirates trailed St. Louis by a run in the bottom of the 14th inning. Neil Walker led off with a single and was followed by this home run to CF by Andrew McCutchen to walk-off the rival Cardinals who the Pirates were chasing for 1st place in the NL Central Division


6) July 12, 2015 – Just a day later the Pirates would do it to the Cardinals again. In the final game before the All-Star Break the Bucs rallied for 3 runs in the bottom of the 10th inning off of Cards’ closer Trevor Rosenthal. Gregory Polanco provided the winning hit by knocking in Jung Ho Kang.


7) August 7, 2015 – Pedro Alvarez played walk-off hero for the second time in the season with this game winning single to beat the Dodgers.


8) August 18, 2015 – This was perhaps the wildest game of the season and featured the most unlikely hero. The Bucs blew a late 5 run lead against the Diamondbacks and were forced into extra innings until Pedro Florimon drove in the winning run in the bottom of 15th inning with this trip…trip…triple!


9) August 22, 2015 – The Pirates had just 3 hits in this game, but all of them were solo home runs including this drive by Starling Marte with 2 outs in the 9th inning to down the Giants 3-2.


10) September 13, 2015 – The Pirates rallied from an early 6-1 deficit to take the Brewers to extra innings. Josh Harrison capped off the comeback with the game winning hit in the 11th inning.


11) October 2, 2015 – Another Marte Partay! Starling Marte hit his second walk-off home run of the season, this time in the 12th inning against the Reds.


Pirates 2015 Season Post-Mortem

This is will be my last post for a little while. I need a break. I can not handle the misplaced angst and over the top negativity many fans have right now towards my Pittsburgh Pirates. But I need to vent a little so here goes…
Eventually I’ll appreciate this season, but right now I can’t.
Misplaced angst over the team’s salary is driving me nuts. Needless to say I lay very little blame on the feet of the GM or the owner. Case in point:

  • The Pirates finished with a better record than the Cubs. They lost in the Wild Card game to a pitcher that makes less than half the salary of Charlie Morton. The Cubs core is largely minimum salary rookies. In fact, it was one of those rookies that drove in 3 of the 4 runs the Cubs scored in the Wild Card game.

  • The Pirates lost the NL Central division to the Cardinals by two games. The two highest salaries on the Cardinals’ roster, Adam Wainwright and Matt Holliday, spent most of the year on the DL. Did the Cards spend money to fix the holes? No. The five members of the starting rotation the Cards used to win the division were paid about $18.3 million in salary. The Pirates starting rotation was paid just over $31 million. It was Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty that filled the void for the Cardinals offensively while Holliday was on the disabled list for a large chunk of the season.

  • Meanwhile the Pirates added more salary to this year’s payroll at the trade deadline than any team in baseball. Sorry to burst your bubble folks, but the complaining over the team payroll is misguided angst. The Pirates have failed to advance for the simple reason that their players choked.
    But GM Neal Huntington and owner Bob Nutting should be on notice that they must continue to work and spend to improve the roster. Frankly, the best spending may just be trimming fat. Eat whatever salary you need to just to make Charlie Morton go away. And take some more damn risks. They gambled on Jung Ho Kang and won. I’d rather gamble on risky yet high ceiling players than safe high floor players. And that includes turning to high ceiling prospects sooner if need be.

    This is just like the 90-92 playoff years all over again. Players choked. The bats of the core players went silent in an elimination game. This is largely the problem in the playoff exits in each of the last three years. Neil Walker and his 2 hits in 31 postseason ABs has now replaced Barry Bonds as the most disappointing postseason performer of any Pirate in my lifetime. Meanwhile opponents’ aces have out shined ours. Three of the last six complete game shutouts in an MLB postseason “winner advances” game have been thrown against the Pirates. They belong to Jake Arrieta 2015 NL Wild Card Game, Madison Bumgarner 2014 NL Wild Card Game, and John Smoltz 1991 NLCS Game 7. The bats came up small and so did our ace. Gerrit Cole spit the bit when we needed him most. No other way to sugar coat it….THE PLAYERS FAILED.

    This is what I’ll lay at the feet of the coaching staff. The teams that know the Pirates best continue to exploit their weaknesses. For as great of a pitching coach that Ray Searage is, his neglect at emphasizing and teaching how to control the running game has been an ongoing problem in games within the division. And Clint Hurdle can’t allow the team to be so damn predictable that NL Central Division teams can almost script their wins against the Pirates.

    I know eventually I’ll look at this season fondly. I find enjoyment in Pirates baseball during 100 loss seasons, so there is no way I can hate a season in which my Bucs won 98 games. But as Bartlett Giamatti famously wrote about the game, “It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart”…and right now I am heartbroken.

    Hidden Vigorish and a Wild Ass Wild Card Prediction

    If you are a Pittsburgh Pirates fan you are most likely familiar with the term Hidden Vigorish, which is the inspiration behind the name of this website. Hidden Vigorish is a term coined by the late great Pirates play-by-play announcer Bob “The Gunner” Prince that describes a situation/team/player that is “overdue” to come through in the clutch. You need not be a Pirates fan or be familiar with Bob Prince to understand the concept of Hidden Vigorish. Essentially it is the “Law of Averages“, though the Gunner made it out to be an almost a mystical force that affected nearly all situations in the sport of baseball. A hitter in an 0-20 slump had an unbelievable amount of Hidden Vigorish stored up ready to swing the outcome of his next at bat to his favor.

    If Bob Prince were alive today he would most certainly have a wry smile on his face as he contemplates all of the Hidden Vigorish that is dripping from the 2015 National League Wild Card Game that is to be played tonight between the Pirates and the Cubs at PNC Park. So let’s take a look at one very Wild Ass, Wild Card prediction that isn’t all that far fetched when you factor in Hidden Vigorish.
    Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta is on an historic run in which he has posted a microscopic ERA of 0.75 since the all-star break. Since July 1st he has surrendered just two home runs – both hit by the lowly Philadelphia Phillies. Arrieta will have to overcome a tremendous amount of Hidden Vigorish to keep the ball in the yard tonight. And which Pirates’ hitter will step to the plate with the most plentiful amount of Hidden Vigorish on his side? That would be Josh Harrison who has not homered since May 15th. So, you heard it here first. Josh Harrison will take Jake Arrieta deep!
    Got your own Wild Card prediction that is influenced by Hidden Vigorish? Tweet it out with #wildcardhiddenvigorish

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